Thoughts on Starting Pitchers

[Andy Barnes]

*Warning: this post is quite lengthy, and it contains formatting code, so it is best served to be viewed on the proboards site, and not on the mobile app.*

Before i delve into the real reason for this post, i would like to provide a little back-story.

This afternoon, while writing up my Chicago Cubs trade block, i made a comment about Rick Porcello. This comment goes as such:

Rick Porcello- 3yrs $10
This is a pretty decent contract for a SP that will only be 24 next season. I'd like to get a prospect near MLB ready for him in combination with a less costly SP replacement. a simple 2 for 1 package.

Now this seems like a rather harmless trade block post, and believe me, i thought the same thing. That is, until i saw what Rob, the manager of our beloved DLF Champion NYY, said on the league's chatroll.

Wow. Just finished laughing at the idea that Rick Porcello is a "pretty decent contract" at 3 years $10. Sorry Andy....that's gotta be a type-o

Know, i don't believe that Rob meant any harm by this comment, but he essentially did two very inspiring things. He called out my evaluation and challenged me to try and prove him wrong, or more so, to prove myself right.

And the information that follows is the product of insomnia and pride. Rob i hope you more than anyone enjoys this. On to the research.

First, I started by making a list of all players currently under contract in DLF, that have SP eligibility for next season. This list concluded with 118 players. My next step was to remove all arbitration eligible players, since the structure of their low priced salaries would dilute the data set. This resulted in 112 players in the data set.
Next I went to MLB.com 2012 Stats: Starting Pitchers. I sorted all stats recorded by starting pitchers, by IP. I eliminated any players that did not record 100 IP as a starter in 2012. This resulted in 83 players. Now, to reduce this data set a bit further, I removed all pitchers that did not face at least 600 batters. The remaining list is 73 players in total.

**It should be understood, that all stats represented in this research are based on 2012 recorded stats, in which, the player in question appeared solely in a SP capacity[/size]

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Within this data set, i documented IP, GS, TBF, W, L, H, R, ER, K, BB, HBP, HR.

I also broke these players into a total of 9 salary based tiers. And they are listed in order of highest salary to lowest salary.

Tier 1
$30+
Clayton Kershaw- $40
Stephen Strasburg- $33
Felix Hernandez- $32
Justin Verlander- $31

Tier 2
$25-$29
Tim Lincecum- $29
Jered Weaver- $28
David Price- $27
CC Sabathia- $27
Yu Darvish- $26
Cole Hamels- $25

Tier 3
$20-$24
Ian Kennedy- $24
Zack Greinke- $24
Roy Halladay- $24
Jon Lester- $23
Dan Haren- $23
C.J. Wilson- $21
Ricky Romero- $21

Tier 4
$14-$19
Cliff Lee- $19
Matt Cain- $18
Yovani Gallardo- $18
Mat Latos- $18
Derek Holland- $16
Gio Gonzalez- $15
James Shields- $14
Adam Wainwright- $14

Tier 5
$10-$13
Madison Bumgarner- $13
Josh Beckett- $12
R.A. Dickey- $11
Ervin Santana- $11
Clay Buchholz- $10
Rick Porcello- $10
Tommy Hanson- $10
Chad Billingsley- $10

Tier 6
$7-$9
Max Scherzer- $9
Jeremy Hellickson- 49
Doug Fister- $9
Johnny Cueto- $8
Josh Johnson- $8
Chris Sale- $8
Mike Leake- $8
Trevor Cahill- $7
Jordan Zimmermann- $7

Tier 7
$3-$6
Anibal Sanchez- $6
Justin Masterson- $5
Mike Minor- $4
Wandy Rodriguez- $3
Henderson Alvarez- $3
Ivan Nova- $3
Bud Norris- $3

Tier 8
$2
Hiroki Kuroda- $2
Homer Bailey- $2
A.J. Burnett- $2
Mark Buehrle- $2
Edinson Volquez- $2
Tim Hudson- $2
Gavin Floyd- $2
Francisco Liriano- $2

Tier 9
$1
Jason Vargas- $1
Jake Peavy - $1
Matt Harrison- $1
Kyle Lohse- $1
Ricky Nolasco- $1
Bruce Chen- $1
Wei-Yin Chen- $1
Phil Hughes- $1
Edwin Jackson- $1
Jonathon Niese- $1
Ryan Vogelsong- $1
Joe Saunders- $1
Jeff Samardzija- $1
Ryan Dempster- $1
James McDonald- $1
Randy Wolf- $1

In an effort to keep this post as short as possible, i won't be diving head first into analyzing the entire set of 73 pitchers. I will focus on two types of peer groups for Rick Porcello. The first of which will be salary peers, more specifically players within a few dollars of Porcello's salary ($7-$12), in an attempt to prove if he is in fact over-valued, under-value, or just right where he should be. I will also focus on players within the ages of 23-26, also known as his age peers. These age's are as of June 30, 2013.

The list of players that are between $7-$12 are:
Josh Beckett, R.A. Dickey, Ervin Santana, Clay Buchholz, Chad Billingsley, Tommy Hanson, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Jeremy Hellickson, Josh Johnson, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Chris Sale, Jordan Zimmermann, and Trevor Cahill

The list of players that are between 23-26 are:
Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Tommy Hanson, Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, Jonathon Niese, Clayton Kershaw, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Trevor Cahill, Mike Minor, Stephen Strasburg, Rick Porcello, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner and Henderson Alvarez.

So the final peer group for Rick Porcello, based on Age and Salary consists of: Tommy Hanson, Jeremy Hellickson, Mike Leake, Chris Sale, and Trevor Cahill.

Not a bad group to be in just from that data. But now on to the stats, which is the most important part.

If we look at a stat as simple as FIP we get the following order:
Chris Sale- 3.37
Trevor Cahill- 3.96
Rick Porcello- 4.02
Mike Leake- 4.61
Tommy Hanson- 4.67
Jeremy Hellickson- 4.70

But how about a few more intrusive stats....

K%
Chris Sale- 24.9
Tommy Hanson- 21.2
Trevor Cahill- 18.6
Jeremy Hellickson- 16.7
Mike Leake- 15.3
Rick Porcello- 13.7

BB%
Rick Porcello- 5.6
Mike Leake- 6.1
Chris Sale- 6.5
Jeremy Hellickson- 8.0
Trevor Cahill- 8.8
Tommy Hanson- 9.3

HR%
Trevor Cahill- 1.9
Rick Porcello- 2.0
Chris Sale- 2.5
Jeremy Hellickson- 3.4
Mike Leake- 3.4
Tommy Hanson- 3.5

So based on these numbers, if i was to rank these players against each other, it would look something like this.

Chris Sale: $8; Age- 24
FIP- 3.37
K%- 24.9
BB%- 6.5
HR%- 2.5

Trevor Cahill: $7; Age- 25
FIP- 3.96
K%- 18.6
BB%- 8.8
HR%- 1.9

Rick Porcello: $10; Age- 24
FIP- 4.02
K%- 13.7
BB%- 5.6
HR%- 2.0

Tommy Hanson: $10; Age- 26
FIP- 4.67
K%- 21.2
BB%- 9.3
HR%- 3.5

Mike Leake: $8; Age- 25
FIP- 4.61
K%- 15.3
BB%- 6.1
HR%- 3.4

Jeremy Hellickson: $9; Age- 26
FIP- 4.70
K%- 16.7
BB%- 8.0
HR%- 3.4


I think we can all agree that Chris Sale at $8 is very very under value, and that Trevor Cahill at $7 is moderately under value. The opposite can be said about Tommy Hanson though, he should be closer to $8 and fall in line with Leake and Hellickson.

I think a good comp for where Chris Sale should be...

Cole Hamels: $25; Age- 29
FIP- 3.41
K%- 24.9
BB%- 6.0
HR%- 2.8

And I think a good comp for where Trevor Cahill should be...

Mat Latos: $18; Age- 25
FIP- 3.96
K%- 21.6
BB%- 7.5
HR%- 2.9

So if i was to place a value on Rick Porcello based on this research and this research alone...I would have to go somewhere between $12-$15.

I'd love to hear what everyone else thinks.

[Deleted]

Andy-
1). I LOVE the effort
2). You are a great salesman
3). That is mostly gobblegook to me.

Contracts at this point are literally 2013 and 2014. After 2014 we can essentially cut contracts for free if they suck and not keep the player for the 2015 season.

That being said, age isn't a factor in 2 years of ball. I'll take 41 year old Andy Pettite for the next 2 years over Porcello. I would also likely pay $8-9 less too... If we were talking Dynasty league with no contract limits, most of that information may apply.

As it sits, you're looking at a $10 player who just pitched a 10-12 season with a 4.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP which came with less than 6/K per nine.

...the dude has never struck out more than 6.11 per nine (using his minors stats), and had his best ERA of his major league career this year at 4.59. With a brutal infield, bad averages, no strikeout ability... I think you're selling fools gold.

When you look at the players available to be drafted RIGHT NOW there are likely 40 SP that had better seasons that Porcello by the player rater. Most will go for $1-$3 when we open bidding. Doesn't really make 2 years of $10 Porcello sound enticing...

[Andy Barnes]

I think its funny that you nonchalantly dismiss data as gobbledygook and you write of 2015 since the majority of the league has bad contracts. when in fact 2013-2015 is Porcello's age 24-26 seasons. This combined with the fact that he has steadily increased his K% 12.4, 12.0, 13.3, 13.7, while decreasing his BB% 7.2, 5.4, 5.9, 5.6 since his debut in 2009 at the ripe age old age of 19. And while you think about other 19 year old starting pitchers and how they performed against the highest level of competition, check out his FIP trend, 4.77, 4.31, 4.06, 3.91. See you compare his current stats with guys like Andy Pettitte or other cheap salaried players, and of course they look better. At a fraction of the price, if they have one good category its essentially worth the price of admission, anything extra is all icing on the cake.

My point was simply, that no matter your bias, the facts remains that when weighed against his peers, Rick Porcello at $10 is at very least a reasonable price, since its right around his median value. But when you look at his trends and look at what pitchers with similar numbers are getting paid, he's actually moderately undervalued. If we were to go through the auction all over again, i'd easily be willing to bid $12-$15 for him.

I never said that he was a stud or that he is the end all be all of fantasy value, but the numbers dont lie. He sits among a group of pitchers that are approximately $2-$4 cheaper than they should be going into next year. Add in the fact that his contract covers up to his prime years, he can be a quality piece to use a RFA tag on, so you can lock him up over his prime, with a lower price. Since we all know guys like Rob will only bid $5-$8 on him, and he could easily be worthy of $15 by that point in his career.

[Deleted]

Gooblegook was a joke... I write off your data because it counts on him getting better during the next two years (all players with bad contracts will be cut before the 2015 season or their GMs should be kicked out). We all use different data to do our projections, but I think it's fair to point out that most web sites had him projected about where he ended up.

Real 2012 stats for Porcello
10-12, 4.59 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 176.1 IP, 107 K

Projected 2012 by ZIPS
11 win, 4.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 173 IP, 100 K

He pretty much nailed it.

ZIPS for 2013 (early so far, not all the data available for Zips yet):
4.73 ERA, 55 BB, 178 innings, 107 K (he was projected for 48 BB last year so ZIPS actually has him being worse this year...)

We each can use whatever stats we want (BB rate, K rate, whatever sabremetric you want...) but we only use 7 stats in this league for pitching.

Here's the truth (I feel like this has become a political campaign.. hahaha):
Porcello will get you
-0 holds
-0 saves
-1 win every other week or so (same with QS)
-4 or 5 Ks per week
- A projected ERA that is worse than every DLF team's ERA for the 2012 season
- A WHIP that is projected to be only better than 1 team was in 2012 (sorry OAK).

All that and you HAVE to pay him $10 for 2013 and 2014? There's no way I can come close to consider that a decent contract.

[Deleted]

One last note:

WAIVR- our fantastic system created by our own Brad Zill and Andy Barnes has only 10 SP contracts that are WORSE than Porcello's for 2012 (4 really don't count because they didn't pitch an inning... that's Lackey, Pineda, Baker and Braden)

the 6 worst SP contracts in the DLF for 2012 per WAIVR (had to make it six to include Porcello ) -
6). Rick Porcello @ $10 with an ERA of 4.59
5). Daniel Bard @ $12 with an ERA of 6.22
4). Philip Umber @ $1 with an ERA of 6.44
3). Randy Wolf @ $1 with an ERA of 5.65
2). Ricky Romero @ $21 with an ERA of 5.77

and the #1 worst 2012 contract by WAIVR is....

Jonathan Sanchez with an unreal ERA of 8.07 at the discount price of $11...

[Deleted]

I just worked on putting the spreadsheet together. The formulas aren't mine.

[Andy Barnes]

First off, those league centric ERA and WHIP numbers are greatly skewed by relief pitchers.

Secondly, I think its apparent that you are a "what have you done for me lately" owner. Which is fine. It works for you.

I however am probably more like the majority, in the sense that projecting youth applies to perceived value. And that is why I used age peers as well. A 24 year old pitcher that has improved his K%, BB%, and HR% steadily over 4 years is a quality investment. Especially when you can have him for three more seasons at a price that doesn't break the bank and has been shown to be around market price if not below market price.

There are plenty of teams in real need of starting pitchers that have shown growth, are younger than prime age, and consistently pitch 30 games a year. If you look at the pitchers available on the free agent market this year, I don't think you'll find that fits that mold. More so, for the price of a couple prospects it can be even more attractive to a team that has cap space, instead of fighting supply and demand in free agency.

Now if I was to say that id cover half of this years salary it makes him even more under valued at $5. If he deserves to be cut like you mentioned, in 2015, than $5 this year and an even buyout in 2014 is pretty low on risk, but high on possible reward if he continues to improve up to and including his prime years.

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[Andy Barnes]

Where does Porcello fall if you rank by WAIVR for WHIP, K, W, QS? I know its not at the top, but per dollar spent its definitely not at the bottom.

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[Deleted]

Actually... he's right at the bottom for WHIP... 4th worst

W - 70th of 121

QS - 76th of 121

WHIP - 118 of 121

K - 87 of 121

I doubt you're in the majority on this guy Andy. Feel free to take a vote of the 20 teams, but I'd assume that maybe 2 or 3 owners see Porcello as a decent contract currently. But that's just my opinion.

At least we had a fun discussion today.

[Andy Barnes]

This was all in regards to my trade block post. A prospect and replacement sp for porcello and possibly $5 in cash can be very attractive to those cash strapped teams

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[Deleted]

Ricky Romero...smh.

I think if I could make a major league roster, I'd be an upgrade for my fantasy rotation (assuming the bidding didn't get outta control, and stayed below $55 AAS).

[Deleted]

This begs the question...

Can you send a player and a prospect for nothing? Or do a one-sided trade?

For example... you'd would have to trade me Ricky Romero (sorry Kyle), 2 prospects and some cash to make me take him... not that Kyle would, but that's would it would take.

Or do I have to throw something his way too?

[Andy Barnes]

Id do a pick or low prospect Rob

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[Andy Barnes]

I was checking over your WAIVR argument. See what you did was list the lowest WAIVR scores. When what you should have done is look at WAIVR/$. This way you can see how effectively the money was spent. When you sort it like that you get Porcello as 78 out of 112 in terms of WAIVR pts per dollar spent. Looks quite a bit better than 6 worst contract, when essentially you only looked at contributions and not compensation.

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[Deleted]

Counter argument to that point-if I paid Sanchez $30 this year that means his contract would have been better than Porcello's on a pt/$ which both you and I know doesn't make any sense.